What the Latest RBA Decision Means for Australian SMEs, and What Vietnam Can Learn

1. RBA September 2025 Cash Rate Decision

The Announcement

The Reserve Bank of Australia announced today at 2:30 PM AEST that it will hold the cash rate at 3.60% (ABC News).

Why the RBA Held Rates

• Inflation pressures remain elevated: August CPI came in at ~3.0%, which still keeps the RBA cautious
   

• Labour market and wage growth: The RBA is monitoring signs of cooling in employment and wage inflation
   

• Consumer demand & growth headwinds: With cost of living burdens, consumer spending is under stress
   

• Market expectations aligned: Most economists and banks expected a hold ahead of the announcement

2. Impact for Australian SMEs & Startups

Borrowing & Debt Costs

Holding rates means no immediate relief on variable loans, businesses still pay elevated interest.

Working Capital & Cash Flow

High interest expense still squeezes tight margins and cash buffers.

Investment & Growth Planning

The incentive to borrow for expansion is muted. Many SMEs will pivot to efficiency, automation, and internal improvements rather than big capex bets.

Demand & Consumer Behavior Effects

Household debt stress (especially mortgages) stays high, dampening consumption, retailers and service providers may feel weaker demand.

3. A Glimpse Across the Seas: Vietnam’s Economic Pulse

To give your readers deeper context, let’s see how Vietnam is reflecting or diverging from Australia’s macro environment.

Vietnam’s Recent Growth & Inflation Trends

• In H1 2025, Vietnam’s economy grew ~7.52%, one of the strongest expansions in years,  driven by manufacturing, services, and trade
   

• Inflation has been moderate: CPI in Vietnam rose ~3.22% year-on-year
   

• The government aims to keep inflation between 4.5% and 5.0% for 2025

Interpretation: Unlike Australia, where inflation is a key risk, Vietnam is still balancing growth momentum with inflation control. The pressure to raise interest to curb overheating is not yet as acute, but risks exist due to credit growth and external shocks. 

Interest Rate & Credit Environment in Vietnam

• New loan interest rates are averaging ~6.38%
   

• Credit growth is rapid, putting pressure on monetary policymakers to tighten
   

• Exchange rate pressure and global capital flows may push Vietnam’s central bank to consider rate adjustments

Structural & Trade Ties: How Australia & Vietnam Interact

• Trade & investment between Vietnam and Australia have grown steadily. The Australia-Vietnam Enhanced Economic Engagement Strategy cites ~8.6% average annual trade growth over 20 years
   

• Vietnam’s economy is complementary to Australia’s: Australia exports raw materials, agriculture, education, energy; Vietnam produces manufactured goods and consumer exports
   

• But Australian firms have had pullbacks: for example, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) recently fully exited its 4.4% stake in Vietnam’s VIB bank, citing refocus on core markets 

What This Contrast Tells Us

• Australia is in a more mature stage of the cycle: inflation, monetary policy constraints, and rate adjustments matter more
   

• Vietnam is still in growth acceleration mode, with monetary policy flexibility but rising vulnerability to external factors (credit delinquencies, currency volatility)
   

• While Australian SMEs struggle under high rates, Vietnamese firms may enjoy better borrowing environment (so far), but risk from credit expansion and capital flow volatility is rising

4. What Businesses in Both Markets Should Do

5. Revised Conclusion: Lessons Across Borders

The RBA’s decision to hold the rate at 3.60% reflects an economy in cautious balancing mode. For Australian SMEs and startups, this means managing pressure, not expecting relief.

Vietnam, meanwhile, is riding a stronger growth trajectory but must maneuver carefully to prevent overheating. The interplay between the two via trade, investment, and macro policy, underscores how decisions in one economy echo in another, especially for businesses with transnational exposure or ambition.

Final takeaway for your core audience: Keep watching regional trends, your business is not just in your country. Knowing how Vietnam and Australia move can help you spot opportunities (new markets, partnerships, innovation) and head off risks (rate shocks, funding constraints, supply disruptions).